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Guard companies and alarm companies are different industries. Most headline market numbers blur them together.

Private Security Market Size: What Census and BLS Data Show About Guards and Alarms

Census puts US guard services at $32.2B and alarm services at $28.3B (2022). Why private estimates range from $24B to $387B, and how to vet alarm contracts.

12 min read

The best federal figures for the US private security industry come from the Census Bureau's Service Annual Survey: security guards and patrol services (NAICS 561612) earned $32.2 billion in 2022, and security systems services (NAICS 561621), the industry that sells, installs and monitors burglar and fire alarms, earned $28.3 billion (the alarm figure is in a companion FRED series). Those are 2022 numbers because that is the latest year the Census Bureau had published when we checked in September 2026. Private research firms publish much larger and much more scattered figures for "the private security market," from about $24 billion to about $387 billion for 2025, because they define the market differently and mostly count the whole world. None of those numbers tells you whether a particular alarm contract is a good deal, so the second half of this guide is about that.

The earlier version of this article reported that the global private security market was worth $241.4 billion in 2022 and would reach $531.5 billion by 2032, a 7.8% CAGR. That figure is real: it comes from an Allied Market Research report whose scope covers manned security, electronic security, and cash handling for residential, commercial, industrial and government buyers. It is a labeled private estimate with a 2022 base year, not a measurement, so it is now presented that way. The old article's regional growth claims, growth drivers, and ethics section had no sources and have been removed.

Guard Services and Alarm Services Are Different Businesses

The Census Bureau's North American Industry Classification System manual separates the two clearly, and the difference matters to a homeowner.

  • Security guards and patrol services (561612) covers establishments "providing guard and patrol services, such as bodyguard, guard dog, and parking security services." This is people.
  • Security systems services (561621) covers establishments "selling security alarm systems, such as burglar and fire alarms, along with installation, repair, or monitoring services" or remote monitoring of alarm systems. This is hardware plus a recurring monitoring subscription.

The classification manual also draws boundaries that explain why no single number captures "home security." A company that only sells alarm equipment without installing or monitoring it is classed as wholesale or retail. A contractor that only wires alarms, with no sales or monitoring, is classed as an electrical contractor. So the Census figure for alarm services excludes the doorbell camera you pick up at a big-box store and install yourself. It also does not include the smart-home side of the business covered in our smart home market guide.

What Federal Data Shows

Revenue. The Census Bureau's Service Annual Survey reports guard and patrol services at $28.7 billion in 2018, $32.0 billion in 2019, $30.6 billion in 2020, $29.5 billion in 2021, and $32.2 billion in 2022. Alarm services rose from $23.4 billion in 2018 to $26.0 billion in 2019, $25.0 billion in 2020, $26.0 billion in 2021, and $28.3 billion in 2022. In plain terms, guard revenue was roughly flat between 2019 and 2022, while alarm revenue grew about 9% over the same span. These are nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation, and cover employer firms. The Census Bureau's Service Annual Survey has been folded into its newer Annual Integrated Economic Survey, and we could not find a later published figure, so treat 2022 as the latest solid number rather than the current year.

Guards as an occupation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook (last modified August 2026) counts about 1,294,300 security guards in 2025 with a median wage of $38,020, or $18.29 an hour. BLS projects 1% employment growth from 2025 to 2035, which it calls slower than average, with about 157,200 openings a year, mostly from workers replacing those who leave. Fifty-eight percent of guards work for investigation, guard and armored car services companies, and the rest are spread across schools, hospitals, retailers, and hotels. Most states require guards to be licensed, and BLS notes that most guards learn the job in a few weeks.

One company for scale. ADT reported 2025 revenue of $5.1 billion, end-of-period recurring monthly revenue of $359 million, and gross revenue attrition of 13.1%. That is a company disclosure to investors, not an industry statistic. But $359 million a month works out to about $4.3 billion a year, most of the company's revenue, which suggests how much of an alarm company's business is the recurring fee rather than the equipment on your wall.

Why Private Estimates Range From $24 Billion to $387 Billion

We opened three current commercial reports to see how they define the market, and they are describing different things.

A useful sanity check: Research Nester's global manned-guarding number is smaller than the Census Bureau's figure for US guard revenue alone, even allowing for different years and for Research Nester's inclusion of equipment. That does not prove either is wrong, but it shows why scope matters. Four things drive most of the spread:

  1. Scope. Guards only, guards plus alarms, or guards plus alarms plus cybersecurity, investigation and armored cars.
  2. Geography. Nearly every private estimate is global, while Census and BLS data are US.
  3. Revenue versus spending. Some firms count what providers earn, others count what buyers spend, including hardware.
  4. Undisclosed methods. The methodology sits behind a paywall, so none of these can be checked.

For a similar walk through the same problem, see how federal data anchors the pest control market and how diffuser estimates diverge eightfold.

Burglary Is Falling While the Market Grows

A growing security industry does not mean burglary is rising. The FBI's 2025 Reported Crimes in the Nation, released in August 2026, estimates that burglary fell 15.8% from 2024 to 2025 and that the burglary rate reached a 20-year low, below 200 offenses per 100,000 people (193.6, compared with 731.7 in 2006). Agencies reporting through NIBRS recorded 580,454 burglary and breaking-and-entering incidents in 2025, and the most frequent time of day was noon to 6 p.m. That includes commercial break-ins, so it is not a residential-only count, but it is a reminder that houses are most often empty during the day.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics gives a fuller picture because it surveys households instead of counting police reports. In its Criminal Victimization, 2024 report, the National Crime Victimization Survey estimated about 1.1 million burglary victimizations in 2024, a rate of 8.2 per 1,000 households (down from 10.1 in 2022), and about 41% were reported to police. So police statistics undercount burglary, and falling counts still leave a real risk. The federal data cannot tell you whether an alarm prevented any of these. Nothing here says a monitored system is unnecessary or that you should buy one; it says the decision should rest on your home, your habits, and your budget rather than on market growth headlines.

What This Means When You Buy Alarm Monitoring

The alarm business earns most of its money after the sale, so the contract deserves more scrutiny than the equipment. This section draws on the FTC's consumer guidance on shopping for a home security system (published December 2023) and Consumer Reports' buying guide.

Questions to get answered in writing before you sign

  1. What is the total cost over the whole term? Consumer Reports found professional monitoring fees of $15 to $53 a month across the brands it surveyed, and notes that contracts typically run two to five years. Multiply the monthly fee by the number of months, then add equipment and installation.
  2. What are the cancellation and moving terms? Ask what happens if you sell the house, move, or cancel early, and what the early termination fee is. Have that language in the contract itself.
  3. Who owns the equipment? "Free" equipment usually comes with strings attached. The FTC warns that to get a supposedly free system you may have to sign a long, expensive monitoring contract.
  4. Does the price rise? Consumer Reports notes that monitoring fees may rise over time and that a contract can help you avoid increases. Ask whether the contract price is fixed or has escalators.
  5. What does the monitoring center do when the alarm goes off? The FTC suggests asking whether the company calls you first or dispatches police directly, and what happens if it cannot reach you.
  6. How does the system talk to the monitoring center? Consumer Reports says most systems include cellular backup so they keep working during power and internet outages, with the fee usually built into professional monitoring.
  7. Is the company licensed? The FTC advises checking the contractor's license, name and license number, and asking a door-to-door salesperson for ID and business information.
  8. Do all the promises appear in the written contract? The FTC says the contract should include every promise the salesperson made, and be dated.

If you sign at home rather than at the company's office, the FTC Cooling-Off Rule gives you three business days to cancel, even if the system has already been installed. The seller must give you cancellation forms.

Self-monitored or professionally monitored

Consumer Reports describes self-monitoring as usually free of monthly fees and multiyear contracts, but with the risk that you miss a phone alert. Many self-monitored systems let you add professional monitoring temporarily, for example when you travel. NerdWallet's guide reports that some insurers give discounts of 5% to 20% for professionally monitored systems, which is a claim worth confirming with your own insurer before you count on it.

False alarms and what they can cost you

A false alarm is not only an annoyance. A Department of Justice problem-oriented policing guide by Rana Sampson reports that between 94% and 98% of police alarm calls are false, that false alarms make up 10% to 25% of all calls to police, and that user error such as wrong keypad codes and doors left open was a significant cause. That research is dated (the guide was first published in 2002 and revised in 2007), and modern systems are more reliable, but the policy response it inspired is still in your city code.

Many cities require an alarm permit and charge fines after a set number of false dispatches. The alarm industry's model alarm ordinance, endorsed by the International Association of Chiefs of Police, recommends permits, no more than two free responses before fines, and a call to confirm the alarm before police are dispatched. The association says roughly 1,000 jurisdictions have adopted it. A few places require more. The Security Industry Association reports that Seattle requires audio, video or human verification of a crime in progress before police respond, and that only 19 of roughly 18,000 US agencies have adopted that policy.

What to do with that:

  • Look up your city or county alarm ordinance before you buy. Find out whether you need a permit and what a false dispatch costs.
  • Ask the company how it prevents false alarms, and whether it verifies before calling police.
  • Give every household member and regular visitor the code and practice arming and disarming, since user error is the most common cause.
  • Keep your contact list current so the monitoring center can reach someone.

What Not to Do

  • Do not sign at the door under pressure. Any offer that expires "today" can wait for you to read the contract.
  • Do not rely on a verbal promise about price, cancellation, or equipment ownership.
  • Do not choose a guard service without checking that the company is licensed in your state. BLS reports that most states require licensing for guards.

When Guard Services Make Sense

Guard and patrol services are typically bought by businesses, schools, and communities with shared spaces such as a gated neighborhood or condominium association, not by individual homeowners. If your association is hiring one, ask for the company's state license, its insurance, and how it screens and trains guards. The same habit of reading the scope and the contract applies when hiring mold remediation companies.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the size of the private security market in the US?

For 2022, the Census Bureau reports $32.2 billion for security guards and patrol services and $28.3 billion for security systems services. Combined, that is about $60 billion, but the two are different industries and the sum is not an official total.

What CAGR is forecast for private security?

Published forecasts are in the range of roughly 8% to 14% a year depending on scope, including Allied's 7.8% and Research Nester's 13.6%. BLS, by contrast, projects only 1% growth in US guard employment from 2025 to 2035. Forecasts and employment are different measures, so both can be true.

Is alarm monitoring worth it?

It depends. Professional monitoring adds a person who responds when you cannot, at a recurring cost. Self-monitoring costs less but relies on you seeing and acting on alerts. Compare the total contract cost, cancellation terms, and your insurer's discount, if any.

Can I cancel a home alarm contract?

If you signed at home, the FTC's Cooling-Off Rule gives you three business days. After that, your contract's terms control, so read the cancellation and early termination language before you sign.

Are burglaries increasing?

Not according to the FBI. Its estimates show burglary falling in 2025 to a 20-year low rate. The BJS victimization survey estimated 8.2 burglary victimizations per 1,000 households in 2024, down from 10.1 in 2022.

Sources

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